Netflix Stock Repricing Overdone

Netflix (NFLX) stock is soaring this morning, up 36% ($37) to $140 per share in pre-market trading. The company's fourth quarter financial results were above expectations, but at first glance do not appear to warrant a 36% stock price increase. Revenue rose 7.9% year-over-year, leading to a very small quarterly profit of 13 cents per share.

Investors are enthusiastic about Netflix's addition of 2.05 million domestic streaming customers (up 8.2% versus the prior quarter), but that figure is a bit misleading as actual paid customers rose by just 1.67 million (+7.0%). Obviously, lots of free trial memberships are given out at the holidays, but how many of them convert to paying customers is a big question mark.

It was also a good sign to see operating earnings from the domestic streaming segment rise to $109 million in Q4, versus just $52 million a year ago. The DVD mail segment earned $128 million domestically for the quarter, which just goes to show you how much more profitable those subscribers are. The DVD mail business earned more money, despite having just 8.05 million paid subs, versus 25.5 million paid streaming subs.

Netflix continues to see subscriber losses in its most profitable segment and gains in a streaming business that has very high operating costs. Just how valuable a streaming customer actually is will remain an important issue for investors. Based on the stock's rise this morning, you would think streaming customers mint money for the company. Conversely, Netflix reported segment profits of $4.25 per paid subscriber during the fourth quarter. That comes out to less than $1.50 per month in profit from the $8.00 per month in revenue they generate.

Back in August, with the stock floundering in the mid 50's, I wrote an article on Seeking Alpha entitled "Netflix Is Finally Cheap." I did not buy the stock, which in hindsight was a mistake since the analysis was correct. With the stock around $140 as I write this post, I can not justify an equity valuation of $8.25 billion for the company, so if you have played this stock correctly lately, you might want to strongly consider lightening up on your long position into today's strength.

Full Disclosure: No position in NFLX at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Dell LBO: A Logical Move That Others Might Mimic

Investors have been speculating for a couple of years now that Michael Dell could eventually take his computer company private, after leaving the option on the table in multiple press interviews. His large stake as founder and CEO (about 15% of the company) coupled with his transformation plan and lack of respect on Wall Street (for the stock, not himself) all make a leveraged buyout seem logical. With news that a deal is being negotiated and could be finalized shortly in the $13-$14 per share range, I think the deal makes a lot of sense and others might take Dell's lead and follow suit.

All of the ingredients required for a successful LBO are there in Dell's case. The stock is so unloved on Wall Street that even after a premium is attached to the shares (which were hovering around $10 before news of the deal discussions leaked) the company can be had for a very attractive price. The company generates about $4 billion of cash flow annually, with $3.5 billion or so left over after capital expenditures. With a market value of around $23 billion, which excludes $6 billion of net cash on the balance sheet, Dell and his group would be paying about 4 times EBITDA.

Bears on the stock will be quick to point out that Dell still gets the majority of its revenue from desktop and laptop computer sales and that business is in decline thanks to the emergence of powerful smartphones and tablets. Indeed, that is why the stock has been pressured lately and accounts for the meager enterprise value assigned by the public market, but it also ignores the transformation plan that Dell and his team have slowly been implementing. While PC deterioration is offsetting the financial benefits of the company's move into the corporate world of servers, storage, security, and services right now, over time that side of the business (which is both Dell's current focus and future) will overtake the PC side and allow the company to continue to book strong profits. Once PCs dwindle to 20-25% of the business over the next several years, Dell can re-IPO and the LBO investors can cash out big time. At that time, Dell will look more like IBM than HP.

So why might other companies seen as "old tech" go down a similar route as Dell? First, it makes it a lot easier after someone else does it first, as it gives credibility to the idea. Companies heavy into PC-related businesses are not going to get respect from Wall Street going forward. Dell's pre-deal P/E ratio of 6x proves that. After a while, the frustration mounts and staying public loses its luster. Hewlett Packard is likely going through a similar thought process right now, even though they are far behind Dell in orchestrating a solid transitional game plan. Even PC-related software companies like Symantec are being painted with the same brush and could explore the idea of going private. Anti-virus software is simply seen as yesterday's technology and lacking growth potential.

All in all, this Dell LBO idea makes a lot of sense on multiple fronts, and while other companies might not have as many strong cards to play to make a deal like this work, I bet a finalized Dell deal prompts a lot of discussions in board of directors' meetings across the industry in coming months.

Full Disclosure: Long SYMC at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Apple Shares Now Nearly As Cheap As Microsoft: Which Would You Rather Have?

That's right. With the recent share price plunge in Apple (AAPL), from over $700 to around $525, the stock is rapidly approaching the valuation of 1990's tech darling Microsoft (MSFT). While clearly facing near-term headwinds, both on the product side (a narrowing of their technological lead over rivals) and the financial side (fiscal cliff, tax-related selling before year-end), among others, I find it hard to make an argument for why Apple should not trade at a premium to Mister Softee. To be fair, Apple still fetches slightly more if you go out to one decimal place, with AAPL trading at 6.4 trailing cash flow, versus 5.7 times for Microsoft. If Apple shares fell another 8% or so, to around $485, and MSFT stayed around $27, both would trade at 5.7x trailing 12 month EBITDA. Still, investors are having a hard time understanding exactly how sentiment on Apple has shifted so much in just a few short months.

Now I know many people come to this blog to discover new investment ideas, and Apple definitely does not qualify. However, since contrarian investing is one of my core tenets, I think it is important to point out that Apple shares are dirt cheap right now. In order to justify a lower stock price, say one or two years from now, you have to think that Apple's sales and earnings have peaked and are headed down from here. While that is not an impossibility, especially in the world of technology, I think it is far more likely that Apple's market share gains slow and level off going forward. Even in that case, the end markets they serve as going to grow nicely over the next few years. As a result, I don't envision their financials petering out from here, though for a company of this size, the hey days of rapid growth are clearly over.

For those who aren't sure such prognostications will prove true, consider again the comparison with Microsoft. Regardless of Apple's position relative to Google, Samsung, and the like in the coming years, is Microsoft really as well positioned? I don't think so. Even a bet that Apple will outperform Microsoft, given their stocks are nearly identically priced, is a bet investors can make in the public market by shorting one and using the proceeds to go long the other. iPod versus Zune? iPad versus Surface? iPhone vs Windows Phone? It's not a bad play.

Although discussing large cap tech titans like AAPL and MSFT hardly uncovers anything new for curious investors, I definitely think today's share price on Apple is worthy of discussion. The recent 200 point decline seems very overdone to me, based on what is happening out in the tech marketplace. The last time I updated my fair value for Apple stock I got a number with a "7" handle on it. Nothing has changed since then, and for the first time in a long time, I am actually looking to add to the stock in client portfolios.

Full Disclosure: Long Apple and no position in Microsoft at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Why 6.5% Unemployment Is The Fed's Magic Number

Today Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve announced that they would keep the fed funds interest rate near zero as long as the unemployment rate remained above 6.5%. Why pick that number? They did not say for sure in their press release, but I can take an educated guess. Over the last 40 years, the unemployment rate has averaged exactly 6.5% in the United States. So Bernanke and Co. are going to keep rates ultra-low as long as unemployment is above-average.

I would also point out that the 6.5% level as the long-term average is important to keep in mind as we envision what a "normal" U.S. economy looks like. Some people may mistakenly think that 4-5% is typical or common just because we got down to those levels during the dot-com and housing bubbles. That is definitely not the case. A normalized economy is 3% GDP growth (vs 2.7% last quarter) and UE at 6.5% (vs 7.7% last month). So while we are not quite at a normalized level of economic growth and employment right now, we are not as far away as many (especially in the political arena) would have you believe. Perhaps that explains why corporate profits are slated to reach a record high this year, surpassing the prior record attained just last year.

Would Going Over The Fiscal Cliff Really Be That Bad?

Easily the most frustrating thing about being a long-term investor nowadays is how short-term focused Wall Street has become in recent years (or more accurately, the last two decades). Quarterly earnings reports and whether companies slightly beat or slightly miss estimates made by a bunch of number-crunchers in New York result in huge share price volatility. Owners of real businesses would be the first to tell you that small quarter-to-quarterly fluctuations in sales and profits are far less important than the long-term strength, viability, and competitive position of their companies.

Political leaders have the same problem; they are obsessed with the short term because they are up for reelection so frequently. If you listen to the media, or your elected representatives, you would think going over the fiscal cliff would be absolute catastrophe. But is that actually true? Well, it depends on whether you care about the short term or long term outlook for the finances of the United States.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the non-partisan fiscal accountant for Congress, projects that the U.S. would fall into a mild recession if we went over the fiscal cliff, and that the unemployment rate would rise from 8% to 9% in 2013 as a result. In 2014, the economy would return to growth, much like we have today. That is the short-term impact. And yes, that is a bad outcome for politicians currently holding office.

But what about the long-term view? Are there any positive effects that might make it worth it to have a short, mild economic downturn in 2013? This is a question the media and politicians rarely speak about. For instance, did you know that without any actions to blunt the impact of going over the fiscal cliff, the U.S. budget deficit ($1.1 trillion in fiscal year 2012) would fall 43% from 2012 to 2013. In 2014 it would fall another 40%. In 2015 it would fall another 45% (all figures are current CBO estimates). At that point, the U.S. federal budget would essentially be balanced. The deficit problem would vanish within three years, and that is if we do absolutely nothing! Congress could actually accomplish something important by not passing a single piece of legislation!

One could easily argue that the best long-term outcome for the U.S. economy would be to have a balanced budget within three years, even if it meant taking some short-term pain in 2013 as tax rates reset to Bill Clinton-era levels. But nobody is taking a longer term view. Everyone is acting as if they are on Wall Street and care only about the immediate future. There is absolutely no chance that our country's leaders do nothing and balance the budget, even though they would all agree that $1 trillion annual deficits are unsustainable and are easily the biggest problem the U.S. faces in the intermediate term.

Instead, we should expect that politicians will opt to extend most of the Bush tax cuts and postpone or eliminate most of the planned spending cuts. Such a plan would do nothing to reduce our deficits and sets us up for much bigger problems a few years down the road. What people don't seem to understand is that the debt crisis that will arise from $1 trillion annual deficits year after year is many times worse than the relatively mild 2013 recession that inaction on the fiscal cliff would cause. Don't believe that? Just ask Greece or Spain, where unemployment rates are over 25%.

A Challenging Global Outlook for the Next 50 Years

The above is never something I would venture to take a stab at, but GMO's Jeremy Grantham has made a name for himself by making bold predictions about the future. His latest quarterly letter, entitled "On the Road to Zero Growth" is one of his best, in my opinion. A highly recommended read if you are interested in a 16-page article characterized by a lot of economic jargon. Granted, it makes a lot of sense and was written by someone who has been right an awful lot over his multi-decade investment career. Just thought I would share the link. Enjoy!

Does Marissa Mayer Make Yahoo Stock A Worthwhile Bet?

Granted, I am a numbers guy, so even asking whether a new CEO is enough to warrant buying a stock is a stretch for me. While quality leadership is certainly important, successful stock market investments require the numbers to work and no matter how great the CEO, they can't magically make the numbers work all by themselves (unless you want the books to be cooked of course). Still, I am intrigued by Marissa Mayer's hire as the new CEO at Yahoo (YHOO), even though the company is clearly not gaining relevancy on the Internet. A 1990's darling, Yahoo has lost its lead in search (thanks to Mayer's former employer, Google) and really only has a stronghold in a few areas of the web, such as email and fantasy sports.

Still, considering who has been occupying the corner office at Yahoo over the last decade, it is compelling that a tech person of Mayer's caliber is now running the show. From 2001 to 2007 the company was headed by a movie studio exec (Terry Semel). From 2009 to 2011, they brought in a Silicon Valley veteran (Carol Bartz), but she previously ran Autodesk, a software company that sells products to help engineers design factories, buildings, and 3D animated characters. Is it really that surprising that Yahoo has been treading water for all these years?

Enter Marissa Mayer, Google's 20th employee (and first woman engineer) who had been leading successful efforts in areas where Yahoo actually competes, like web search. If anyone can help reinvigorate Yahoo, it might just be her. But isn't that taking a big leap of faith? Sure, but there is another factor, other than the CEO, that makes a bet on Yahoo shares at $16 each worth a look. The numbers.

Yahoo's current market value is less than $20 billion. As of September 30th, the company's stake in Yahoo Japan ($7.7 billion) and Alibaba ($8.1 billion) account for the majority of that valuation. Even if you deduct the tax liability that would be incurred if Yahoo were to monetize these stakes, the organic Yahoo operations are priced at just $10 billion. What do investors get for that $10 billion? To start, how about nearly $7 billion of net cash on the balance sheet (plenty for Mayer to begin a transformation)? That leaves a mere $3 billion valuation on Yahoo's core operations, which generated free cash flow of $250 million in 2011. That is a low price even if the company doesn't grow at all going forward.

Yahoo stock today looks to me like a call option on Marissa Mayer. As I said before, a CEO alone is not a good reason to buy a stock. But what if you have a unique change in leadership that could very well pay off in spades, and the meager public market valuation of the company basically affords you limited downside risk? The combination of those two factors makes the stock an interesting opportunity in my view. If Mayer, like her predecessors, fails to reinvigorate the company, then the shares likely stagnate here in the mid teens. However, if she succeeds, as her resume seems to suggest she could, there is a lot of upside to the story. It feels weird for me to say, but Yahoo at $16 with Carol Bartz running the show didn't interest me one bit. With Mayer it's a different story.

Full Disclosure: Long shares of Yahoo at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time 

Chipotle Stock: Rapidly Approaching An Attractive Level

Hedge fund titan David Einhorn has been on fire in recent years with his bearish calls (Lehman Brothers, St Joe, Green Mountain, etc) and his latest presentation at the Value Investing Congress detailed a negative outlook for Mexican fast casual restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Some of his points on CMG were easier to agree with (sky-high valuation, slowing growth, pricing pressures) than others (a strong competitive threat from Taco Bell?) but he nailed another one of his calls. CMG shares are falling $30 today after the company reported a disappointing quarter last night. The stock now sits just above $250, down from a high of $442 hit in April of this year.

Chipotle stock long surpassed any level that I consider a good value, but as its recent descent continues, it makes sense to at least pinpoint a price at which it might warrant consideration on the long side. After all, the company still has a very attractive longer term unit growth outlook, is likely to remain very popular with consumers, and the company sports one of the highest operating margins I have ever seen generated by a restaurant company (27% unit-level operating margins).

The reasons for the stock's decline lately are completely justified even though they don't really impact the long-term business outlook for the company. The valuation was crazy before (at $442 per share it traded at a 50 forward P/E ratio) and comp sales growth of high single digits or more was definitely not sustainable. Yesterday the company offered 2013 guidance of 12% unit growth and indicated comps could be flat. While such an outlook will hurt shares short term, longer term it is not terribly worrisome.

With the stock now down more than 40% from its high, I do not think it is far off from a fair price, though it is not quite there yet. If the shares fell to around the $225 level, which equates to about 12 times cash flow, I would start to get interested. This is definitely one growth company to watch, as negative business momentum short term could very well send the stock down to value territory if investors' disappointment continues.

Kudos to David Einhorn for another timely call. I would never suggest investors' blindly follow any investor, but Einhorn is clearly one of the best around right now and it worth paying attention to when he gives public presentations. We can all learn a lot from him.

Full Disclosure: No position in any of the companies mentioned at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Investors in Sarepta Therapeutics Should Think About Selling Some

Today's big stock market winner is Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), a small biotech company developing Eteplirsen, a novel therapy for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy. Shares are rocketing higher by a stunning 175% today, from $15 to $41 each, on news that a phase 2 study showed promising results compared with placebo.

There are some red flags though, that should be pointed out. The study was completed on just 12 patients, normally not a large enough sample to get FDA approval. And 4 of those were the placebo group, so only 8 subjects received the drug for the full 48 week trial period. Second, the particular genetic mutation this drug targets is only present in 13% of cases, so the potential patient pool here is only about 2,000 people in the United States.

At a price of $400,000 per year (a typical level for orphan drugs that treat small patient populations), U.S. sales could reach $800 million if the drug is approved and every patient takes it. There are a lot of "ifs" in this scenario, however, and after today's huge stock price jump, Sarepta is being valued at nearly $1 billion already. FDA approval, even if it comes, it not right around the corner.

Long investors would be wise to consider taking some of their gains off of the table. Small cap biotech stocks like this are quite risky, especially after having nearly tripled in a single day. Situations like this can easily go either way longer term.

Full Disclosure: No position in SRPT at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time