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Noodles & Company IPO Doubles in Price, Already Overvalued After One Day

June 28, 2013 Chad Brand, Peridot Capital Management LLC
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The IPO market has certainly warmed up in 2013, but fast casual restaurant chain Noodles and Company (NDLS) has taken it to the next level with a more than 100% first-day gain. We haven't seen that in a really long time. 

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So should investors jump in? Noodles and Company currently has about 340 units, has been growing at 15% annually recently (at least 10%+ each of the last ten years) and sees a potential market at 2,500 units over the next 15-20 years. In addition, the company earns a 20% unit-level cash flow margin, at the high end of its peer group.

The problem for investors though is not the growth story, it's the price. After doubling on its first day of trading, NDLS fetches a $1.1 billion market value on about 33 million fully diluted shares. That is over 30 times the company's 2012 EBITDA of $37 million, a ridiculous price! Even Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), the most expensive dining stock around, trades at less than 20 times EBITDA.

The bottom line for me is that the Noodles and Company IPO has been very successful, but I would not touch the stock after it has doubled from $18 to $36 on the first day of trading. Chipotle is too expensive for my taste as well, but if you are looking for a very profitable casual dining stock with lots of growth potential and valuation is not a crucial element for you, CMG looks to be far more attractively priced than NDLS at today's prices.

Full Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time.

In food and beverage
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Peridot Capital Management LLC is a registered investment advisor in the states of Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Washington. The firm may not transact business in states where it is not registered or exempted from registration. In most states, the firm is exempt from registration if it has fewer than six clients who are residents of that state. As a result, Peridot Capital Management LLC is free to provide services to residents of every state and applies for registration as required. Individualized responses to persons that involve either the effecting of transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without registration or exemption.

The content published on our blog represents the opinions of Mr. Brand and he and/or his clients may hold positions in securities discussed. Such positions will be disclosed at the time of publication, although subsequent changes to those positions will be made without notification. The information contained in blog posts is believed to be accurate when published, however, mistakes could be made. As a result, do not rely on the content exclusively for your investment due diligence. The commentaries published do not constitute investment advice, as readers’ personal investment goals and risk tolerances will dictate which investments are appropriate for them. Our blog is meant to be one of many sources for readers to conduct their own research into specific investments. Consult an investment professional before acting solely on information found on this site. If you do not have an investment professional to work with, you may contact Peridot Capital Management LLC directly.