November has been the worst month for stocks in several years. The S&P 500 is now negative for the year, and sits 10% below its high and 8.5% lower this month alone. Not only do long term investors like myself take a multi-year outlook of the future when investing money, but it also helps to put things in perspective by looking back at where the markets have come from in a multi-year scenario. Much like a student who gets a C on a tough exam might be in fine shape if previous grades in a semester have been all A’s, investors need to realize that markets don’t go up all the time, just as good students can’t possibly ace every test.
Stock prices rise, on average, 75 to 80 percent of the time in any given year. After four magnificent years of gains in the market, we are overdue for some poor performance. We might finish down this year, or next year, or both, but regardless, take a look at how far we have come over the last five years:
We can’t possibly expect gains like this to continue indefinitely. Even a pullback to something like 1,300 on the S&P 500 index would simply be a normal, healthy retracement after extremely large gains. Perspective like this is important when markets are rattled, as they clearly are right now. I don’t know how long the correction will last, or how low we will ultimately go, but I will remind people that these types of moves are normal, and are required to maintain a healthy marketplace.
As for how to approach new investments in this type of environment, I don’t think meaningful changes need to be made. When fear of the unknown grips markets in the short term, as is happening right now, long term investors simply need to ignore the short term noise and focus on long term fundamental stories. Investment themes need to be able to weather your view of how the world will look five years from now, not five hours from now. If you invest in a company that has a bright long term future, and pay a very reasonable price for it, the odds are in your favor that you will make good money over time. And that fact won’t change based on anything that happens today, next week, or even in 2008.