WSJ Exposure and a Stock Pick

Thanks to Kevin Delaney and the rest of the team at The Wall Street Journal for featuring me yesterday in a front page story about my trading in and views on Google (GOOG). It certainly made for a fun and eventful day, most notably a full inbox and a phone ringing off the hook. If you would like to read the story, it can be accessed through in addition to March 2nd’s hard copy. I also have an electronic copy if you aren’t a WSJ online subcriber, so email me if you’d like a copy.

On to the market. I have been pleasantly surprised how well the market is acting so far this year. I am tempted to take some money off the table, but the momentum is clearly strong right now. Hopefully nothing will get in the way of that. What do readers think? Feel free to comment.

As for specific stocks, I would suggest investors take a look at Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF). The stock was down $6 yesterday after weaker-than-expected same store sales for February. A lot of hot money was in the stock, so the decline may have been more than normal. Keep in mind that SSS were still up more than 5% for the month, and February is the second least important month of the year for retailers. The stock looks very cheap down here under $60 per share.

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5 Thoughts on “WSJ Exposure and a Stock Pick

  1. simon abercrombie on March 3, 2006 at 4:26 PM said:

    Congratulations on your WSJ report!

    Well regarding your comment on the market I hope the strength keeps up. But to me it looks like the market heads into a “sidewards” period…?
    It seems like the mass of investors are already in the market and the great joy of stock picking moves into the focus of the well performer. In other words the general upward trend seems to slow down and might transform to a general sidewards movement.
    But I have another question concerning one particular stock: INTEL. It closed under $20 today. Whats happens? Why is the stock so unattractive with so much money on the bank?
    Why did they retain so much money? And why do they not give it away to their shareholders?
    With maybe an attractive price and so much money isn’t that a great HedgeFund pick? What do you think about it?

  2. Chad Brand on March 4, 2006 at 10:30 AM said:


    I looked at Intel on Friday for the first time in a long, long time. It looks pretty depressed to me, and there is some good support around this level if you look at a long term chart.

    The cycle that has played out for years continues. I’ve seen it so many times. Intel is doing gangbusters but then AMD comes on strong with a new chip or something. Intel’s margins and market share drop, estimates for AMD go through the roof, as does AMD stock.

    Then, Intel drops prices, comes out with something better, and they regain share and margin. AMD never hits the high estimates in the out years that many analysts project, and the stock drops back down. Every few years the process repeats itself.

    I have no reason to believe this time will be any different. Is Intel bottoming yet? It’s hard to know for sure, but at these prices, I would probably suggest starting to build a position slowly if one is interested in playing an Intel turnaround. It always seem to come to fruition at some point.

  3. Jay Walker on March 5, 2006 at 9:25 AM said:

    Keeping money on the table because of mo-mo is dangerously like the analysts you lambast.

    I remember 1999-2000 NASDAQ, and I suppose you do too – great mo-mo, bad, bad ending.

    Read my blog wherein I highlight your recent comments in this regard at:


    PS I enjoy your blog – keep up the good work.

  4. Chad Brand on March 5, 2006 at 10:32 AM said:

    I would hardly call the current market a momentum market. We’ve been in a trading range for a long time, and now are trying to breakout of the top of it. It is hard to argue the market isn’t acting extremely well in recent weeks, and I think that is something that must be considered. We got an Intel warning at nothing really budged… very uncharacteristic. The 1999-2000 comparison seems unwarranted. We’re not going up a lot right now, but we’re holding up very well in the face of uncertainties, which is not all too common. If we can’t breakout of this 1295-1297 area on the S&P 500, we’ll probably head back down to the lower end of the trading range.

  5. Jay Walker on March 5, 2006 at 10:38 AM said:

    Hi Chad,

    I really wasn’t saying that this market resembles 1999-2000 – only that your comment related to momemtum …

    “I am tempted to take some money off the table, but the momentum is clearly strong right now. Hopefully nothing will get in the way of that.”

    …reminded me of what was going on then.

    Obviously, values are much better now than they were then.

    Thanks for your blog which I just recently discovered – useful


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