Fossil: Back from the Dead?

There are certain companies that seem to have a huge profit miss and a resulting stock price catastrophe every so often. Fossil (FOSL) is a perfect example. This company is used to seeing its equity get crushed every few quarters. Investors who are willing to pounce can get a terrific price and wait for a rebound to sell for a nice profit.

Fossil, a leading maker of watches, once again has seen its stock drop from a 52-week high of $32 all the way down to below $20 per share, for a haircut of about 40 percent. Estimates for 2006 earnings are nearing $1.50 and the company has almost $2 per share in net cash on its balance sheet. The result is an enterprise value-to-earnings ratio of only 12x for a company that is growing double digits.

This most likely isn’t a stock that investors should buy today and hold for 3 to 5 years, given its history of putting together a few good quarters and then giving back the gains. Nonetheless, buying at these levels should give investors some upside as the company delivers on reduced expectations. When should FOSL be sold? I think a rebound of 25 percent is in the cards, so Fossil could see at least $25 per share in the next 6 to 9 months.

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