I feel as though my recent writings are all about technology stocks. They shouldn’t be though. All of the portfolios I manage are fully diversified and none of them have more than a market weighting in TMT (tech, media, & telecom). That could be changing though, if recent events are any indication.
The reason why I am typing away about tech more often these days is simply because that’s where I’m finding value. There are still a decent amount of undervalued investment opportunities in energy and other commodity-related companies. But aside from that, I’ve been uncovering tons of ideas within the software space, as well as Internet companies.
You’re probably thinking “yeah right.” He thinks Google (GOOG) is a value at 47 times forward earnings, but that’s not really “value.” I do still like Google because it’s the fastest growing tech company around and despite rising 100% since its IPO, it still trades at a discount to eBay (EBAY) and Yahoo! (YHOO), with stronger fundamentals. The fact that the stock was up $6 today, the very day 177 million shares were free to be sold by company insiders and early investors, shows that I’m not alone in that thinking. However, let’s assume that a 47 multiple is high enough to still scare most people away. That’s perfectly understandable, even if I think that will prove to be the wrong decision.
For the first time ever, I’ve been finding Internet stocks that trade at a discount to their growth rates. That’s pretty rare in any industry, but especially in tech. Nasdaq stocks will always trade at a premium to the S&P 500, as investors look there in hopes of finding the next Microsoft (MSFT). So you can imagine what happens when Internet stocks that trade at market multiples begin to pop up on my radar screen. These companies are growing 20% to 30% percent a year, have loads of cash on their balance sheets (which is mostly being used for small acquisitions as opposed to dividends), and like many technology companies, no debt to speak of.
Let me give you a couple of examples. As always, assume that if I am saying bullish things about certain stocks that I either own them already, or am strongly considering a purchase. The first is Ask Jeeves (ASKJ: $23). Now some people will just laugh at this. Why would you want to buy Ask Jeeves? I must be kidding, right? Rather than think about who Jeeves is (which I must admit doesn’t scream “buy my stock!”) let’s look at what really matters; the numbers. ASKJ is expected to grow earnings 30% in 2005 and 20% in 2006.
Normally I would guess a stock like this would be trading at 40 or 50 times earnings and I wouldn’t even consider buying it. However, the P/E on 2005 numbers is 16.9x. That’s right, the same multiple as the S&P 500 index, only with more than twice the growth. Two things jump out a me about this company. One, it shouldn’t be trading at a market multiple. And two, if another Internet search company bought ASKJ, it would be ridiculously accretive to earnings.
The next stock is InfoSpace (INSP: $43). A very similar situation to Ask Jeeves. INSP is in paid search, as well as services for mobile phones, like ring tone downloads. Earnings are expected to jump 32% in 2005 and another 31% in 2006. The company has no debt and $9 per share in cash (which has been used for several small acquisitions in recent years and will likely continue). Strip out the cash and you get a share price of $34 and a 2005 P/E of 18.7x. Again, if someone like Yahoo! was to buy a company like this, it would add to earnings immediately, given that Yahoo! trades at over 50 times earnings.
The best explanation for why these lesser known Internet stocks are so cheap compared with the likes of giants Google and Yahoo! is that they are second tier players. Many growth investors simply go with the biggest company in the area they want to invest in. However, smaller firms like ASKJ and INSP have proved that there is room for them too and they continue to grow handsomely under the radar.
I really think eventually Wall Street will realize this and give them a higher market value. They may still trade at a discount to the industry bellwethers, but a 25 or 3o P/E seems attainable as soon as the Street realizes how cheap these stocks are and that these companies can survive. I wouldn’t be surpruised if other companies realize this first, and scoop them up before they are in higher demand.